Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE THIS MORNING AND LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT IT DID 6 HOURS AGO.  A RAGGED EYE REMAINS PRESENT
AND SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -50 AND -65
DEGREES CELSIUS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB ARE 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. 
GORDON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THIS SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
GORDON HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. 
IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE WEAKENED RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED INHIBIT
GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BE
APPROACHING GORDON FROM THE WEST.  THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD. BY 72 HOURS...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...
AND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4 DAYS.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE NOGAPS
MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS GORDON AS A SINGLE ENTITY MOVING AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS
WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A 0856 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 31.3N  53.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 32.1N  53.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 33.6N  52.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  50.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.6N  46.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 39.5N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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