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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
GORDON HAS BASICALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS
STRENGTHENED. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NOTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 60W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48 HORUS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CAPTURE GORDON
AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD....
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY CLOUD COVERED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE EYE HAS REMAINED DISTINCT IN
WHAT LIMITED MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP GORDON
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE AT THIS LOCATION IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ALL PERIODS...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
MODEL AT 72 AND 96 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED TRANSITION INTO A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MERGES WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 31.3N  53.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 31.7N  53.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 32.6N  52.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  51.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 36.1N  48.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 40.9N  37.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 42.5N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 02:40:01 UTC