Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.  DESPITE THE WEAKENING
TREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
GORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE
STEERING CURRENTS.  GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.  THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH
WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE
RIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE INTENSITY IS
THEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
GORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
EXTRATROPICAL STATUS.
 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 31.1N  53.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 31.8N  52.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  52.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  51.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 35.3N  49.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 39.5N  42.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 42.5N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/1200Z 45.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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