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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006

GORDON REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE ON CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE AND AN
EYE TEMPERATURE NEAR 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT SOUTH-
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT...AND 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS WERE AROUND 115 KT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT.  

THE LAST COUPLE OF INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS
GETTING DEEPER...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...GORDON'S INTENSITY
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  DESPITE THIS...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT GORDON
HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH
5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER WATERS...SHEAR...AND A HOSTILE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING
CURRENTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE PULLS OUT AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
GORDON WEAKENS.  AFTER 72 HOURS....THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND
GFDL ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 29.5N  55.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 30.7N  54.9W   105 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 31.8N  53.9W    90 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 32.6N  53.1W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 33.6N  52.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 35.5N  49.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 39.5N  43.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 43.0N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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