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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
 
ALTHOUGH GORDON'S EYE REMAINS DISTINCT...IT HAS BECOME SMALLER AND A
LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND
TAFB OF 5.5. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DIMINISHED
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF
GORDON IS IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST GORDON MAY
BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS THROUGH DAY 2 AND LEANS
MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AFTER THAT TIME...AS SHIPS SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE TOO QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 030/11 AS GORDON CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GORDON WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS LEFT IN
AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTH OF THE
WESTERLIES. THEREAFTER...AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE INTERACTION OF GORDON WITH THESE FEATURES VARIES AMONG
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AS THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
ECMWF SHOW GORDON BEING ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
DAY 4 OR 5. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET KEEP GORDON
AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE
STRONGER INITIAL DEPICTION OF GORDON IN THESE MODELS. IF THE FIRST
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WOULD UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...SINCE IT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE ABSORPTION. HOWEVER...IF GORDON REMAINS
INTACT IT WOULD LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT
THIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINLY WHICH
OF THESE SCENARIOS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
FORECAST ASSUMES GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE SYSTEM AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 28.7N  56.6W   105 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 30.1N  55.6W   105 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 31.4N  54.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 32.3N  53.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 32.8N  53.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 34.5N  51.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 38.0N  46.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 09:05:01 UTC