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Tropical Storm GORDON (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
 
THE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
IN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. 

BASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...  
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
GORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS 
WELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN 
IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A
NORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO
THE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON
A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 23.7N  58.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  58.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  58.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 27.7N  58.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 29.5N  58.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  56.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 36.5N  52.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 40.0N  46.0W    55 KT
 
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FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
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