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Tropical Storm GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
  
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE
HAVEN'T BEEN ANY GOOD MICROWAVE PASSES RECENTLY. CONTINUITY FROM
THE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASSUMED INITIAL MOTION IS
320/7...ALTHOUGH IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.  GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
PRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE
TO ITS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GORDON...THAT
IS MOVING WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH
FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OUT...THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
BREAK DOWN THE REMAINING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GORDON
AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY RECURVE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE RIGHT
OUTLIER INITIALLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MUCH SLOWER INTERACTION
WITH THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHEAST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS. OVERALL THE TRACK IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 50 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER GORDON IS DIVERGENT...
AND THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
MODELS BOTH BRING GORDON UP TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AS WELL.  ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR
WOULD BE SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT COULD BE DRIVEN INTO THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...THE
INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON SHOULD BE DONE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 22.6N  58.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 23.6N  59.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 25.1N  59.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 26.7N  59.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 28.1N  59.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 30.5N  58.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  57.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 37.0N  52.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Sep-2006 08:50:01 UTC