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Tropical Storm GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND.
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND WRAPPING
AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED BUT IT IS LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS...A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 50 KNOTS EAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN
THIS ADVISORY. THE VALIDITY OF THESE VECTORS WILL LIKELY BE
QUESTIONED. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN DAY OR SO.
 
GORDON MOST LIKELY WILL SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER. IT IS ALREADY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AND SOON THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT
BY HURRICANE FLORENCE. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS GORDON SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 22.1N  57.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  58.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 24.5N  59.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 26.0N  60.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.6N  60.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 30.0N  59.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 33.0N  57.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 37.0N  52.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Sep-2006 02:40:01 UTC