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Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  33              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  50(57)   2(59)   X(59)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   1(21)   X(21)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  37(39)  22(61)   X(61)   X(61)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  31(36)   8(44)   X(44)   X(44)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   3( 3)  38(41)   9(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BERMUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 362N  638W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 362N  638W 50 79   8(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 362N  638W 64 40  11(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
 24 387N  619W 34 54  40(94)   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 24 387N  619W 50  1  50(51)   9(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 24 387N  619W 64  X  19(19)   6(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 36 420N  585W 34  X  15(15)  65(80)   6(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 36 420N  585W 50  X   X( X)  33(33)   9(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 420N  585W 64  X   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 48 452N  548W 34  X   X( X)  14(14)  46(60)  11(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 48 452N  548W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   8(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 48 452N  548W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 490N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)   9(47)   X(47)
 72 490N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)
 72 490N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 510N  250W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   X(24)
 96 510N  250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 96 510N  250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     65      65      60      55      50       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 20:35:02 UTC