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Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  30(39)   5(44)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)  20(45)   2(47)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)   X(19)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)  10(37)   1(38)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   7(24)   2(26)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   X(19)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   3(19)   X(19)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   3(21)   1(22)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)   3(39)   X(39)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)   X(15)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   1(13)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34 70  25(95)   1(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
BERMUDA        50  3  56(59)   8(67)   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
BERMUDA        64  X  30(30)   8(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 303N  662W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 303N  662W 50 92   4(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 303N  662W 64 62  14(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 
 24 327N  655W 34 70  27(97)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 327N  655W 50  3  72(75)   8(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 327N  655W 64  X  49(49)  11(60)   X(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
 36 354N  638W 34  1  42(43)  46(89)   5(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 36 354N  638W 50  X   4( 4)  52(56)  10(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 36 354N  638W 64  X   1( 1)  29(30)   8(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 48 381N  615W 34  X   X( X)  33(33)  40(73)   9(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 48 381N  615W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  33(38)   9(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 48 381N  615W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 
 72 445N  550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  44(45)  11(56)   X(56)
 72 445N  550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)
 72 445N  550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
 
 96 480N  460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)   7(39)
 96 480N  460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   3(15)
 96 480N  460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 480N  350W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
120 480N  350W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
120 480N  350W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     95      90      80      65      60      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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