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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  21(34)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  14(37)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   8(30)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   2(18)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   4(20)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)   3(33)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   6( 6)  31(37)  31(68)  16(84)   1(85)   X(85)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)  16(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  10(27)   1(28)   X(28)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 259N  648W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 259N  648W 50 75   7(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 259N  648W 64 33  12(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
 24 277N  657W 34 78  18(96)   2(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 277N  657W 50  4  55(59)   9(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 24 277N  657W 64  1  28(29)  11(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
 36 297N  659W 34 23  39(62)  26(88)   6(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 36 297N  659W 50  X   9( 9)  39(48)   9(57)   3(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 36 297N  659W 64  X   2( 2)  24(26)   8(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 48 319N  653W 34  X  12(12)  37(49)  27(76)  11(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 48 319N  653W 50  X   X( X)  12(12)  28(40)  11(51)   1(52)   X(52)
 48 319N  653W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 
 72 376N  616W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  52(56)  10(66)   1(67)
 72 376N  616W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   7(33)   X(33)
 72 376N  616W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   4(18)   X(18)
 
 
 96 440N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   9(45)
 96 440N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)
 96 440N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
 
120 490N  440W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)
120 490N  440W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
120 490N  440W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      85      90      85      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC