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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  24(29)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  17(32)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)  43(66)   6(72)   1(73)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)   6(38)   1(39)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)   X(20)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 238N  609W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 238N  609W 50 28  13(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 12 238N  609W 64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 255N  632W 34 51  38(89)   3(92)   2(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 255N  632W 50  X  37(37)  13(50)   3(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 24 255N  632W 64  X   7( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 36 270N  645W 34  6  55(61)  23(84)   5(89)   3(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 36 270N  645W 50  X   9( 9)  34(43)   8(51)   4(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 36 270N  645W 64  X   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 48 285N  650W 34  X  26(26)  39(65)  15(80)   8(88)   X(88)   1(89)
 48 285N  650W 50  X   1( 1)  18(19)  19(38)  12(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 48 285N  650W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   7(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 
 72 330N  640W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  45(60)  11(71)   1(72)
 72 330N  640W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   8(37)   X(37)
 72 330N  640W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)
 
 
 96 390N  600W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)  11(51)
 96 390N  600W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)
 96 390N  600W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
 
 
120 480N  490W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)
120 480N  490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
120 480N  490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      75      85      75      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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