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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  25(34)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  40(50)  18(68)   2(70)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  15(37)   1(38)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 231N  595W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 231N  595W 50 28  14(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 12 231N  595W 64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 244N  617W 34 57  32(89)   4(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 244N  617W 50  1  37(38)  12(50)   2(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 24 244N  617W 64  X   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 36 258N  636W 34  4  45(49)  31(80)   8(88)   2(90)   1(91)   X(91)
 36 258N  636W 50  X   6( 6)  36(42)   8(50)   4(54)   1(55)   X(55)
 36 258N  636W 64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   9(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 48 274N  646W 34  X  14(14)  43(57)  20(77)   8(85)   2(87)   X(87)
 48 274N  646W 50  X   X( X)  14(14)  22(36)  12(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 48 274N  646W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   6(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 
 
 72 310N  650W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)  38(63)  11(74)   1(75)
 72 310N  650W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)   8(40)   1(41)
 72 310N  650W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)   X(22)
 
 
 96 370N  620W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  35(43)  13(56)
 96 370N  620W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   6(27)
 96 370N  620W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
 
 
120 450N  530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)
120 450N  530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
120 450N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      75      90      85      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC