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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  25(43)  11(54)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   7(26)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 215N  566W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 215N  566W 50 29  14(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 12 215N  566W 64  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 228N  590W 34 47  40(87)   5(92)   1(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 228N  590W 50  X  35(35)  13(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 228N  590W 64  X   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 36 240N  613W 34  1  36(37)  40(77)   9(86)   3(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 36 240N  613W 50  X   4( 4)  36(40)  10(50)   3(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 36 240N  613W 64  X   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 252N  633W 34  X   5( 5)  38(43)  26(69)  12(81)   1(82)   X(82)
 48 252N  633W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)  23(34)  11(45)   2(47)   X(47)
 48 252N  633W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   7(22)   2(24)   X(24)
 
 
 72 281N  657W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)  38(60)  10(70)   3(73)
 72 281N  657W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   8(38)   2(40)
 72 281N  657W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   1(22)
 
 
 96 320N  660W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  26(48)  10(58)
 96 320N  660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)   6(29)
 96 320N  660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)
 
 
120 380N  635W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  22(33)
120 380N  635W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
120 380N  635W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      75      90      95      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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