Tropical Storm FLORENCE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) 12(44)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 210N 556W 34 87 10(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 210N 556W 50 22 14(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
12 210N 556W 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 224N 584W 34 5 68(73) 15(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
24 224N 584W 50 X 26(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
24 224N 584W 64 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
36 236N 609W 34 X 16(16) 51(67) 13(80) 4(84) X(84) X(84)
36 236N 609W 50 X 2( 2) 30(32) 13(45) 3(48) 1(49) X(49)
36 236N 609W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19)
48 248N 630W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 31(62) 14(76) 2(78) X(78)
48 248N 630W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 11(41) 2(43) X(43)
48 248N 630W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22)
72 272N 658W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 36(55) 12(67) 2(69)
72 272N 658W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 8(35) 2(37)
72 272N 658W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 1(21)
96 308N 665W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 9(57)
96 308N 665W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 6(28)
96 308N 665W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15)
120 350N 655W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 17(37)
120 350N 655W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17)
120 350N 655W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 65 75 90 95 95
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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