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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  16(28)  13(41)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 211N  549W 34 88   9(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 211N  549W 50 23  13(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 12 211N  549W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 226N  577W 34  5  67(72)  15(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 226N  577W 50  X  26(26)  17(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 226N  577W 64  X   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 36 240N  605W 34  X  12(12)  53(65)  14(79)   4(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 240N  605W 50  X   1( 1)  31(32)  13(45)   3(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 36 240N  605W 64  X   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
 48 250N  630W 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  35(60)  15(75)   2(77)   1(78)
 48 250N  630W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)  11(41)   2(43)   X(43)
 48 250N  630W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   7(20)   2(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 275N  660W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  38(55)  11(66)   2(68)
 72 275N  660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)   9(36)   2(38)
 72 275N  660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   6(20)   2(22)
 
 
 96 305N  670W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)  22(48)   9(57)
 96 305N  670W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   7(29)
 96 305N  670W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)
 
 
120 350N  660W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  18(36)
120 350N  660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)
120 350N  660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      75      90      95      95
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC