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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 183N  510W 34 83   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 183N  510W 50 11   8(19)   X(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 12 183N  510W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 193N  530W 34 14  60(74)   7(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 193N  530W 50  X  24(24)  10(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 24 193N  530W 64  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 203N  552W 34  1  22(23)  38(61)  10(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 36 203N  552W 50  X   2( 2)  23(25)   8(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 36 203N  552W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 48 213N  576W 34  X   2( 2)  21(23)  28(51)  13(64)   1(65)   X(65)
 48 213N  576W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 48 213N  576W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 235N  625W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  37(42)  11(53)   3(56)
 72 235N  625W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   7(24)   2(26)
 72 235N  625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   2(13)
 
 
 96 255N  665W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  23(35)  11(46)
 96 255N  665W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   6(21)
 96 255N  665W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
 
120 285N  690W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  15(33)
120 285N  690W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
120 285N  690W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      60      65      75      85      95
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC