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Tropical Depression SIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 176N  450W 34 18  10(28)   2(30)   X(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 12 176N  450W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 176N  450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 183N  465W 34  1  26(27)   9(36)   2(38)   1(39)   X(39)   1(40)
 24 183N  465W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 24 183N  465W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 190N  481W 34  X   8( 8)  23(31)   8(39)   3(42)   1(43)   1(44)
 36 190N  481W 50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 190N  481W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 195N  500W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  18(29)  10(39)   2(41)   1(42)
 48 195N  500W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 48 195N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 205N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  24(29)   8(37)   3(40)
 72 205N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   2(15)
 72 205N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
 96 215N  580W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)   8(33)
 96 215N  580W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)
 96 215N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 230N  620W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)
120 230N  620W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
120 230N  620W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     35      40      45      55      65      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC