Hurricane FLORENCE

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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006
 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN ONLY A FEW
MB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. 
SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BERMUDA...INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING
SITE ON THE ISLAND.  THE LATTER REPORT WAS RELAYED TO US BY THE
BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER VELOCITIES OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE
CIRCULATION...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 80 KT. 
THE GUST FACTOR IS ALSO SET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND THE
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE
SAME OBSERVATIONS.
 
BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FLORENCE'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY
TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEREAFTER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART SOME
WEAKENING....HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDE NEW ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEAKENING
PROCESS SLOW.  WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS
AND GFDL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE ON THE RIGHT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 32.9N  65.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 34.7N  64.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 37.1N  63.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 40.0N  60.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 43.4N  56.7W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 47.5N  46.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
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