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Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006
 
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PRESSURE WAS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER
TODAY... 975 MB... WITH 86 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
CORRESPONDS TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 75-80 KT USING
STANDARD WIND REDUCTION FACTORS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT
AT 80 KT BUT COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKNESS
OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM.
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE RAGGED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND THE
LAST AIRCRAFT FIX REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL. STILL...THERE IS A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS HINDER ANY
INTENSIFICATION. THUS... THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BERMUDA
EARLY MONDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN SHIPS... WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT
87 KT... AND THE GFDL WHICH STRENGTHENS FLORENCE TO 97 KT.
PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE
72 HOUR TIMEFRAME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE
HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT HIGH
LATITUDES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. 
 
FLORENCE APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS POINT OF RECURVATURE AND IS
MOVING DUE NORTHWARD... 000/12.  A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES.  AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD... AN
ACCELERATED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
MUCH INTERACTION FLORENCE WILL HAVE WITH THIS TROUGH.  THE UKMET IS
THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...
BUT STILL ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 31.0N  66.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 32.8N  65.9W    85 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 35.0N  64.8W    90 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  63.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 40.4N  60.9W    75 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 46.0N  53.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 48.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0000Z 49.0N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC