Tropical Storm FLORENCE

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
FLORENCE IS SEVERELY ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...DESPITE THE
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE COME
IN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED EVEN THOUGH THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS
FOR FLORENCE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.
 
AFTER WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
PHASE THIS MORNING...A SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY
AND THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPING EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED. SOME
MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW LAYER...AND THIS HINDERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WHEN FLORENCE SHOULD BE TURNING
NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OTHER THAN
TO SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU INTENSITY FORECASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 25.6N  64.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 26.8N  65.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.7N  65.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 30.8N  65.5W    85 KT...APPROACHING BERMUDA
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.3N  64.6W    90 KT...NORTH OF BERMUDA
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  52.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     14/1800Z 49.0N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER STEWART
 
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