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Tropical Storm FLORENCE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO BUT IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT SINCE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED AND
NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT
FLORENCE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY UNDER LOW SHEAR...WARM
SSTS AND THE POTENTIALLY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH INTERACTION.
FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA AND THEN
TURNING IT TO THE NORTHEAST.
 
FLORENCE HAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS COULD REACH BERMUDA IN ABOUT
36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 23.9N  60.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 24.9N  61.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N  63.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 28.5N  65.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 30.5N  65.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  63.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 42.0N  57.0W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/1800Z 47.1N  48.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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