Tropical Storm FLORENCE

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN
DIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5
KT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 19.8N  53.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 21.0N  55.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 22.4N  58.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.6N  60.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.8N  63.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 27.2N  65.8W    90 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 30.8N  66.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     12/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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