Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER CORE
REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
OF FLORENCE...PLUS A 05/1641Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 1003 MB AND
42 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER THAT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE
RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 65W-75W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER
...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY
5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
REMAINS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...IT REMAINS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM...AND LARGE CYCLONES TEND
TO TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THAN SMALLER ONES DO. AS A
RESULT...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...WITH A FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING INDICATED AFTER
THAT AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER 29-29.5C SSTS AND BENEATH DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. IF FLORENCE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE LIKE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...THEN STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LIKE THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 17.4N  48.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  49.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 18.8N  51.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 19.7N  54.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 20.6N  56.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.3N  61.1W    70 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.3N  65.7W    80 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 27.0N  69.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC