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Tropical Depression ERNESTO (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TRENTON NJ     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  5  10(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
DOVER DE       34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  8   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34 11  11(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 26   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 380N  775W 34 22   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 12 380N  775W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 380N  775W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 400N  780W 34  1  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 24 400N  780W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 400N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 415N  785W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 415N  785W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 415N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      25       0       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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