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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  1   6( 7)   7(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1  10(11)   9(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1  11(12)  10(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  2   8(10)   5(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  8  25(33)   4(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 21  23(44)   3(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
NORFOLK VA     50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 11   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 36   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 91   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 61   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 80   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 357N  773W 34 79   5(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 357N  773W 50 16   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 12 357N  773W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 376N  772W 34  8  24(32)   5(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 24 376N  772W 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 376N  772W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 394N  775W 34  1   5( 6)  10(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 394N  775W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 394N  775W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 417N  784W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 48 417N  784W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 417N  784W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     30      25      25       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC