Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  1  16(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  7  49(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
WILMINGTON NC  50  2  18(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 31  35(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 17  16(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 14   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
CHARLESTON SC  50  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 334N  788W 34 46  28(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 334N  788W 50 29  11(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 12 334N  788W 64  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 24 360N  780W 34  X  23(23)   8(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 360N  780W 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 360N  780W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 380N  780W 34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 36 380N  780W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 380N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 401N  785W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 401N  785W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 401N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     35      25      25       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC