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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   6(19)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   5(23)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   3(23)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   3(26)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)   5(26)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  14(23)   1(24)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  12(26)   4(30)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  13(31)   3(34)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  12(28)   1(29)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)  12(37)   2(39)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   9(39)   2(41)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   9(24)   1(25)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  24(32)   7(39)   1(40)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)  20(38)   4(42)   1(43)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   1(13)   1(14)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  19(36)  15(51)   2(53)   1(54)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   2(21)   X(21)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   3( 3)  26(29)  15(44)  12(56)   1(57)   1(58)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)   1(20)   X(20)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   5( 5)  29(34)  16(50)  11(61)   X(61)   1(62)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X  12(12)  33(45)  14(59)   6(65)   1(66)   1(67)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  1  24(25)  34(59)   7(66)   4(70)   1(71)   X(71)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   1( 1)  18(19)   6(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1  45(46)  25(71)   3(74)   3(77)   X(77)   X(77)
MIAMI FL       50  X   5( 5)  22(27)   3(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  1  43(44)  17(61)   3(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
MARATHON FL    50  X   8( 8)  12(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
MARATHON FL    64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1  24(25)  17(42)   3(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X  21(21)  29(50)   7(57)   2(59)   1(60)   X(60)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X  12(12)  31(43)   9(52)   5(57)   1(58)   X(58)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   1( 1)  10(11)   8(19)   2(21)   X(21)   1(22)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   6( 6)  23(29)  11(40)   7(47)   1(48)   X(48)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   3( 3)  20(23)  13(36)   9(45)   2(47)   X(47)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  12(22)  12(34)   3(37)   X(37)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   1(20)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  10(18)   3(21)   1(22)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   1(16)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   X(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  2  26(28)  21(49)   5(54)   3(57)   1(58)   X(58)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 11  33(44)   5(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   1(52)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34 43  25(68)   2(70)   X(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
ANDROS         50  1   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 23   4(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   1(30)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
HAVANA         34  X   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  3  10(13)   6(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CAMAGUEY       34 38   6(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   1(46)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 225N  780W 34 74  10(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 225N  780W 50  8   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 225N  780W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 243N  797W 34 12  64(76)   6(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 243N  797W 50  X  26(26)   9(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 24 243N  797W 64  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 261N  805W 34  1  35(36)  31(67)   5(72)   3(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 36 261N  805W 50  X   3( 3)  22(25)   5(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)
 36 261N  805W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 278N  808W 34  X   8( 8)  32(40)  14(54)   7(61)   1(62)   1(63)
 48 278N  808W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)   4(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 48 278N  808W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 325N  800W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  27(33)   9(42)   2(44)
 72 325N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   1(17)
 72 325N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
 
 96 360N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   4(27)
 96 360N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 96 360N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 400N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
120 400N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 400N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      60      50      70      30      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC