Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   1(16)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   6(26)   3(29)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   7(30)   3(33)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   3(22)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   3(19)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   4(19)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   4(15)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   8(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  11(26)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  11(24)   5(29)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)  14(46)   4(50)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  10(22)   3(25)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  31(39)   9(48)   2(50)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   5(21)   2(23)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  35(49)   7(56)   3(59)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   5(27)   1(28)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  24(45)   3(48)   2(50)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   2(17)   1(18)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   7(34)   1(35)   1(36)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   7( 7)  14(21)   4(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)  19(51)   3(54)   1(55)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  13(24)   1(25)   1(26)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   4( 4)  38(42)  19(61)   4(65)   1(66)   X(66)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   2(25)   1(26)   X(26)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KINGSTON       34  X  15(15)  43(58)   9(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
KINGSTON       50  X   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  3  31(34)   7(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
LES CAYES      50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  5  14(19)   2(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 22   9(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N  722W 34 78   9(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 154N  722W 50 16   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 12 154N  722W 64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 166N  748W 34  3  60(63)  10(73)   1(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)
 24 166N  748W 50  X  19(19)   8(27)   X(27)   X(27)   1(28)   X(28)
 24 166N  748W 64  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 180N  775W 34  X   8( 8)  41(49)  13(62)   2(64)   1(65)   X(65)
 36 180N  775W 50  X   X( X)  15(15)  10(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 36 180N  775W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 195N  800W 34  X   X( X)  12(12)  35(47)  15(62)   1(63)   1(64)
 48 195N  800W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   9(28)   2(30)   X(30)
 48 195N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
 
 72 220N  835W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  34(43)  10(53)   3(56)
 72 220N  835W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   2(26)
 72 220N  835W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
 
 
 96 240N  865W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  21(37)   9(46)
 96 240N  865W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   5(21)
 96 240N  865W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
 
 
120 260N  890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)  13(34)
120 260N  890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)
120 260N  890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      60      70      80      90     100
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC