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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   2(22)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   6(24)   2(26)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   2(17)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   3(15)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   3(14)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  10(23)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  11(23)   4(27)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)  13(42)   3(45)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   1(19)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   7(40)   2(42)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   2(16)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  36(42)   6(48)   2(50)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   4(20)   2(22)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  27(36)   3(39)   1(40)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   1(12)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  10(30)   1(31)   X(31)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   3( 3)  17(20)   5(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  26(42)   3(45)   1(46)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   2(18)   X(18)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)  23(24)  23(47)   7(54)   1(55)   X(55)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   3(20)   X(20)   1(21)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   3( 3)  38(41)  13(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  1  21(22)  20(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   1(44)
LES CAYES      50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2  16(18)   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  9  21(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   1(32)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 156N  711W 34 50  20(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   1(71)
 12 156N  711W 50  8   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 12 156N  711W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 166N  737W 34  1  49(50)  15(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 24 166N  737W 50  X  12(12)   9(21)   X(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 24 166N  737W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 178N  764W 34  X   5( 5)  42(47)  10(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 36 178N  764W 50  X   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 36 178N  764W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 190N  790W 34  X   X( X)  11(11)  28(39)  13(52)   1(53)   1(54)
 48 190N  790W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 48 190N  790W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 220N  840W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)  10(44)   4(48)
 72 220N  840W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)
 72 220N  840W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 240N  870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  21(34)   8(42)
 96 240N  870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   4(18)
 96 240N  870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
 
120 260N  900W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)  12(29)
120 260N  900W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
120 260N  900W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      55      60      70      80      85
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB                                                
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC