ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 3(19) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 3(22) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 5(24) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) 6(38) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 3(34) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) 3(41) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 2(17) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) 2(35) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 2(25) 1(26) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 8(41) 1(42) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) 1(16) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 17(41) 2(43) X(43) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 11(43) 1(44) X(44) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) 1(34) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) CAPE BEATA 34 1 16(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 150N 697W 34 25 16(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 12 150N 697W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 150N 697W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 160N 722W 34 1 35(36) 12(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) 24 160N 722W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 160N 722W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 170N 747W 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 8(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) 36 170N 747W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 170N 747W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 180N 772W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 13(42) X(42) 1(43) 48 180N 772W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 48 180N 772W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 205N 820W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 9(41) 2(43) 72 205N 820W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) 1(17) 72 205N 820W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 96 230N 855W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 7(35) 96 230N 855W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 96 230N 855W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 120 245N 880W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 120 245N 880W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 120 245N 880W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 55 65 70 75 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC