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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   3(19)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   3(22)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   5(24)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  19(32)   6(38)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  12(31)   3(34)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)  12(38)   3(41)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   2(17)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   7(33)   2(35)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   2(25)   1(26)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   8(41)   1(42)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)   1(16)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)  17(41)   2(43)   X(43)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)  12(12)  20(32)  11(43)   1(44)   X(44)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   4( 4)  22(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)   1(34)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   5( 5)  10(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  1  16(17)   7(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   1(25)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 150N  697W 34 25  16(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 12 150N  697W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 150N  697W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 160N  722W 34  1  35(36)  12(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 160N  722W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 160N  722W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 170N  747W 34  X   4( 4)  32(36)   8(44)   3(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 170N  747W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 170N  747W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 180N  772W 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  20(29)  13(42)   X(42)   1(43)
 48 180N  772W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 180N  772W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 205N  820W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  31(32)   9(41)   2(43)
 72 205N  820W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   4(16)   1(17)
 72 205N  820W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
 
 96 230N  855W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  19(28)   7(35)
 96 230N  855W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
 96 230N  855W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 245N  880W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   9(26)
120 245N  880W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
120 245N  880W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      55      65      70      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC