ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CURACAO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 7(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 6(31) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 3(25) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) X(20) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 1(19) X(19) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) 3(37) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 6(44) 1(45) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 28(42) 2(44) 1(45) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 139N 678W 34 22 11(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 12 139N 678W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 139N 678W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 148N 704W 34 1 29(30) 11(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 24 148N 704W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 148N 704W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 156N 728W 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 11(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) 36 156N 728W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 36 156N 728W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 165N 750W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 12(46) 1(47) X(47) 48 165N 750W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) 48 165N 750W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 185N 795W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 8(40) 2(42) 72 185N 795W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) 72 185N 795W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 96 210N 840W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 6(31) 96 210N 840W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 96 210N 840W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 120 235N 875W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 120 235N 875W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 120 235N 875W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 55 65 65 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC