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Tropical Depression FIVE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   7(22)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CURACAO        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   7(27)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   5(23)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)   6(31)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)   3(25)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   6(20)   X(20)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   1(19)   X(19)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  15(34)   3(37)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  30(38)   6(44)   1(45)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   3(17)   X(17)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  28(42)   2(44)   1(45)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   2(17)   X(17)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   8(28)   1(29)   X(29)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 139N  678W 34 22  11(33)   X(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 12 139N  678W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 139N  678W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 148N  704W 34  1  29(30)  11(41)   1(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 148N  704W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 148N  704W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 156N  728W 34  X   4( 4)  29(33)  11(44)   3(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 156N  728W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 156N  728W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 165N  750W 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)  12(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 48 165N  750W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 165N  750W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 185N  795W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   8(40)   2(42)
 72 185N  795W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   1(16)
 72 185N  795W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
 
 96 210N  840W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)   6(31)
 96 210N  840W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
 96 210N  840W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 235N  875W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)
120 235N  875W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
120 235N  875W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      55      65      65      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC