Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEAR LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
CAPE FEAR...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.  GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
  
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST...OR NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST JUST WEST OF CAPE FEAR.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO 
ABOUT 25 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. 
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH
CAROLINA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
STATION AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SIX-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N...78.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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