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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
 
...ERNESTO LINGERING JUST OFF OF PLANTATION KEY...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA IS ALSO
DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH ON THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTHWARD...AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...INCLUDING ALL THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.  THIS POSITION IS
JUST A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA.
 
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE BAHAMAS.  MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD WELL IN ADVANCE OF
ERNESTO THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS COULD
BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES.  

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N...80.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC