Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  79.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N  79.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  79.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.4N  80.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N  81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.9N  80.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.0N  80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N  79.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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