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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

...CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1004 MB...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  74.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  20SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE  50SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  74.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  74.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N  75.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N  77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N  79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N  80.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N  82.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  74.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC