Hurricane ERNESTO

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HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  73.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE  50SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  73.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  73.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N  74.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N  76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N  78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.1N  80.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N  82.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 28.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 31.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  73.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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