Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA
FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO
HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE RADAR
SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS
AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER
JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS
70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY
THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16.  ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 
ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  IT IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE
INITIAL POSITION.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 33.9N  78.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 35.7N  77.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 37.6N  77.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 39.4N  77.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 41.7N  78.4W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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