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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
EXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE
60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB.  SATELLITE AND
RADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS
TRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.
 
ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
 
THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 32.6N  78.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 34.7N  78.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 37.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 38.5N  77.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 41.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC