Tropical Depression ERNESTO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE BROAD CENTER OF ERNESTO
IS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB.  REPORTS FROM BUOY 41009 AND THE
MELBOURNE WSR-88D SHOW THAT WINDS ARE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE DATA DOES NOT YET
JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE.  HOWEVER...ERNESTO WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE CYCLONE AROUND 06Z. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12.  ERNESTO IS NOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWARD
AND NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE
ONLY DIVERGENCE COMING AFTER ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND STARTS TO DISINTEGRATE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ERNESTO HAS A DECENT...BUT BROAD...CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN AND
WIND CIRCULATION.   THIS...COMBINED WITH FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR
DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD BE GRADUAL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SUCH
RE-INTENSIFICATION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THAT FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE. 
 
12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
41009. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 28.7N  80.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 30.8N  79.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  79.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 35.9N  78.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 37.9N  78.2W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 43.0N  79.5W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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