Tropical Depression ERNESTO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
REMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO
RE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT
ERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL
STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.    

ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 26.4N  80.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  80.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 31.0N  80.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 40.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 44.8N  79.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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