Tropical Storm ERNESTO

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006
 
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT ERNESTO IS HOLDING STEADY WITH A
PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT SUPPORT
SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE OVER LAND SHORTLY...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
MORE CHANCE FOR STRENGTHENING. SLOW DECAY IS THEN EXPECTED OVER
FLORIDA...AND HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING OCCURS AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES
INTO THE ATLANTIC DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE IS LEFT.  GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST ERNESTO MAY BE GETTING SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AT
THAT TIME...AND THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE IN
THE ATLANTIC. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FOR A CAROLINA'S LANDFALL IS ONLY REDUCED SLIGHTLY AT
THIS TIME.

AN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE
MADE LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 330/8. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL CONSENSUS. IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT
ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 24.9N  80.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 26.6N  81.1W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 28.6N  80.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 31.2N  80.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 33.8N  79.2W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 37.5N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN