Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE INTENSITY STATEMENT FOR SECOND U.S. LANDFALL
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
ERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
AND IS BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTER IS JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE BURST NOTED IN
RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND ALSO IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 50-KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF
CUBA FOR PERMITTING THE RECON AIRCRAFT FLY RIGHT UP TO THEIR
COASTLINE TO GATHER THIS CRITICAL WEATHER DATA.

BASED ON THE RECON FIX INFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
315/12...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED NOW COURTESY OF THE
NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DATA GETTING INTO THE MODELS. THEY 
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA
IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE AND
SHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ERNESTO SHOULD
RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND
MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA AREA IN
60-72 HOURS. AFTER THE SECOND U.S. LANDFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED
TO BE CAUGHT UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS...AND THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS NHC CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS.

NOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER...AT LEAST SOME STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...
THE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS
TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE
WARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA.
ALSO...AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE
MAKING A SECOND U.S. LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 22.6N  78.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 23.8N  79.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 25.4N  80.7W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 27.3N  81.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 29.7N  80.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 34.7N  79.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 38.0N  79.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     03/0600Z 42.0N  80.0W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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