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Tropical Storm ERNESTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
AT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT
SATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS
PARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  OTHER
THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO
TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS
ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF.  COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  OVERALL..THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. 

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO.  IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36
HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
INHIBITING FACTORS.  
 
IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 15.1N  71.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.8N  73.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N  75.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.4N  78.1W    60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N  80.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N  84.0W    80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  87.0W    90 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     31/1200Z 27.0N  88.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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