Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FIVE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED
UPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30
KT MAXIMUM WINDS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX
HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK
BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
  
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING
A MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS
3 TO 5.  ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO
A HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
TOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 13.2N  63.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.7N  66.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N  68.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N  71.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.0N  73.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  77.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N  81.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N  85.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC