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Tropical Storm DEBBY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 253N  453W 34 46   4(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 12 253N  453W 50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 253N  453W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 272N  476W 34  1  35(36)  10(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 24 272N  476W 50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 272N  476W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 292N  491W 34  X   7( 7)  33(40)   8(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 36 292N  491W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 292N  491W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 312N  496W 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  22(39)  10(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 48 312N  496W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 312N  496W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 360N  470W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)   8(41)   1(42)
 72 360N  470W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 72 360N  470W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 420N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   7(33)
 96 420N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
 96 420N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
 
120 480N  340W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)
120 480N  340W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
120 480N  340W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      40      45      50      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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