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Tropical Depression DEBBY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
 
A 0912 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT
VECTORS ABOUT 110 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
WITHIN THE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HOLDS AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...AND DEBBY BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...THE LAST
ADVISORY COULD BE WRITTEN THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE
IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 HOURS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS MORE TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...360/11. THE
AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN AN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. DEBBY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24
HOURS...AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 29.6N  49.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 32.0N  48.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 35.5N  46.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC