Tropical Depression DEBBY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RECENTLY DEVELOPED
BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 45 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.  
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY...REMAIN AT 25 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS.  DEBBY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM BASED
OFF OF THE GFS FIELDS SHOWS DISSIPATION AS A SHALLOW WARM CORE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES
ABSORPTION WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS.  SO...THERE
STILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT...OR NON-CONVECTIVE...LOW BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
 
DEBBY HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
340/10.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCING THIS MOTION AND ACCELERATION. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 27.0N  47.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 28.6N  48.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 31.2N  48.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 34.2N  46.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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